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If you are political gambler and want to bet on the general election, spread betting is one of the most effective ways to bet.
Normally, with gambling on sporting events there is a fixed outcome, like Man U will beat Everton (or whatever). But, with politics there are not so many absolutes. You can bet on fixed odds on things like who will be the next prime minister, will there be a hung parliament, and the percentage turn out. If you want the best odds for this sort of betting, you are best using a betting exchange like Smarkets.
However, as political betting and the general election bets are often on a sliding scale, spread betting allows you to buy and sell levels as though you were trading the stock market. Profit and loss is not absolute, but rather scaled based on how right or wrong you are.
Here are the top three spread betting markets for the UK general election betting.
Party General Election Seats
Here you can bet on how many seat a party will win in the general election. You buy and sell the spread based on whether you think the bookie is making the right price or not.
Both Spreadex and Sporting Index are both making prices on Conservative seat wins of 284-288 (Spreadex is currently offering 290 offered if you want slightly better odds). This means that the bookies think that the Conservatives will win between 284 and 288 seats at the general election. Read our Spreadex Sports Review…
If you think the Conservatives will win more you would buy a certain amount per point. Your P&L is based on what the actual result is versus what you paid. So for example if you think they will win 300 seats you would buy at 288. If your stake was £10 per point and you were right and the Conservatives did actually win 300 seats, you’d win (300-288)*£10 or £120. If they won more, say 310 you win (310-288)*£10 or £220.
However, if they only won 250 seats you would loose (288-250)*£10 = £380.
Amount of seats UKIP will win
It’s going to be a pretty poor turnout for UKIP this election day according to the spread betting firms. Despite the hype, both sports spread betting bookies think that UKIP will get no more than 5 seats. If you think they will it’s like buying an option bet. It’s risky. It’s almost pointless shorting the amount of seat UKIP will win as both bookies are offering sell prices of 2.5. So the max return is 2.5 points, with plenty of negative downside.
Betting on the London Regional Markets
Sporting Index are offering a market for the amount of seats that the Parties will get in London. They favor Labour to win, despite their mansion tax plans. You can see their odds here.
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